Diesel Fuel Outlook Heading Into Fall
August 24, 2026 (including September 3 – Additional Comments)
Looking out into the upcoming harvest, we expect diesel tightness to be a factor that we will all have to work through. With the ongoing conflict with Iran, energy in general has been affected both from a price and supply perspective.
Prices ran up hard in March 2026 and have stayed elevated. From an end user standpoint, this has caused the majority of the fuel consumers to go hand-to-mouth, filling only what they needed to get through spring and summer. With this pattern across the Midwest, this creates what could be a challenging fall. Inventories across the Midwest are at the lower end of 5-year averages. Exports out of the USA are also up about 3MB a week more than normal.
Even though prices are high, filling equipment and your on-farm storage are a few main factors that can be controlled going into fall. At Meadowland, we are ensuring our storage stays on the full end entering harvest. In a normal fall, we will turn our storage 3 times, so even going in full, we will be waiting in what could be very long lines at the terminals during fall.
We aren’t trying to scare anyone that there won’t be diesel fuel this fall, but we want everyone to be aware of the challenges that may arise and how we can mitigate some of the possible issues. We look forward to working with you and wish you a safe and successful harvest for 2026!
Eric Squires, Energy Division Manager
*September 3 – Additional Comments:
The price of diesel has risen 30-40 cents in the last two weeks. Given that the price is not attractive, the recommendation is still to remain on the top end of tanks through harvest and then finish the season with low inventory. The below chart shows where Diesel stocks are and have been with a history dating back to 1982.